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Yash Agarwal
हिन्दी

Independent researcher, not investment advice

What’s moving the stock markets?

Insightful blogs on Indian and world stock markets, kept simple enough for a 13 year old to understand (not a 5 year old ofc).

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India has about 4,300 listed companies and more than 13 crore investors.

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Listed companies

₹100 in every listed company in India: how 2026 wentI put an imaginary ₹100 into each of the 5,352 companies listed on the NSE and BSE on 1 January 2026, SME platforms included. Counting every one at its last known price, the total was up 1.9% by 26 October. Counting only the 4,713 that actually traded on 1 January, it was down 1.2%. The Nifty 50 was down about 12%.

Brief

₹100 in each of 5,352 listed companies would be up 1.9% by late October, or down 1.2% counting only those that traded on 1 January. The typical company fell 13%.

Key points

  • ₹5,35,200 spread equally across 5,352 companies became ₹5,45,568 by 26 October 2026, a gain of 1.9%. Counting only the 4,713 companies that traded on 1 January, it was a fall of 1.2%.
  • The same money in the Nifty 50, with dividends, would have fallen about 12%.
  • About one in eight SME companies lost more than half its value, compared with about one in nineteen on the main board.

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Research

FPI

Foreign vs Indian investors: who really moves the Nifty now?Indian institutions now buy far more shares than foreign investors sell, and they own more of the market. But month to month, the Nifty still tends to move with foreign money.

Brief

Indian institutions now outbuy foreign sellers and own more of the market, but the Nifty still tends to fall in months when foreign investors sell.

Key points

  • In 2025, domestic institutions bought ₹7.88 lakh crore of shares while foreign investors sold ₹1.66 lakh crore.
  • Domestic institutions owned 19.5% of NSE-listed companies in June 2026, against 15.1% for foreign investors.
  • The link between monthly foreign flows and Nifty returns is about as strong since 2021 (0.55) as it was in 2015 to 2019 (0.54).

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Research

Muhurat trading

Muhurat trading: does the Diwali session say anything about the year ahead?The Nifty 50 closed higher in 16 of the last 21 Diwali sessions. But the year after a down session went up just as often as the year after an up session.

Brief

The Diwali Muhurat session usually ends up, but over 20 years an up or down session did not tell you whether the next Samvat year would rise.

Key points

  • The Nifty 50 rose in 16 of 21 Muhurat sessions from 2005 to 2025.
  • The next Samvat year rose 12 times out of 15 after an up session and 4 times out of 5 after a down one: 80% both ways.
  • Muhurat turnover was 12% to 30% of a normal day's turnover between 2011 and 2025, mostly because the session is so short.

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Research

Mutual funds

Mutual fund money from smaller towns: how much comes from beyond the top 30 cities?Places outside India's 30 biggest mutual fund cities now hold about a fifth of all mutual fund money. Their share has grown, but slowly, and the big cities still hold four rupees out of every five.

Brief

Smaller towns hold about a fifth of India's mutual fund money. That share has risen only a few points since 2018, but it is much higher if you count only individuals' money.

Key points

  • Places beyond the top 30 cities held 19.1% of mutual fund money in July 2026, up from 15.3% in March 2019.
  • In those places, 65.9% of mutual fund money sits in equity funds, against 39.8% in the top 30 cities.
  • Mutual fund money per person is ₹3.95 lakh in Delhi and ₹6,897 in Bihar, about 57 times less.

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Research

IEPF

Forgotten money: the shares and dividends nobody claimedA government fund now holds about 196 crore shares worth ₹83,245 crore, plus ₹10,338 crore in cash, that investors lost track of. Getting it back used to take close to three years. That changed in late 2025.

Brief

Investors have left shares and cash worth about ₹93,600 crore with a government fund. Claims got much faster after October 2025, but shares still flow in far faster than they flow out.

Key points

  • The IEPF held 195.68 crore shares worth ₹83,245 crore on 31 March 2026, plus ₹10,338 crore in cash.
  • From FY2021 to FY2025, about 91 crore shares moved into the fund and about 3.6 crore came back out.
  • Approved claims jumped from 12,749 in FY2025 to 62,668 in FY2026 after a new portal joined up three separate systems.

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Data

Listed companies

What India's stock market is made of: 4,300 companies, sortedAlmost every main-board company on NSE and BSE, sorted by sector, size, age, state and profit

Brief

About 4,300 companies are listed on India's main boards, but a few hundred of them hold almost all of the market's value.

Key points

  • The top 100 companies hold 57% of the market's value, while the smaller half of companies holds 0.3%.
  • Financial services are 15% of listed companies but a quarter of the value.
  • The typical listed company is 36 years old, and a third are registered in Maharashtra.

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Research

IPOs

The SME IPO frenzy, 2020 to 2026: what happened after the listing popMoney raised through small-company IPOs grew from ₹159 crore a year to ₹11,430 crore. I tracked 517 of these IPOs after their first day of trading.

Brief

India's SME IPO boom drew huge crowds. But after its first day of trading, the typical IPO fell well behind the SME market.

Key points

  • SME IPOs raised ₹11,430 crore in 2025, up from ₹159 crore in 2020.
  • A year after listing, the typical IPO was 31% behind the SME index.
  • IPOs that jumped 92% or more on their first day fell 34% behind the SME index over the next year.

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Research

SIP

The SIP machine: how ₹32,000 crore a month changed India's marketMonthly SIP money has grown almost four times since 2020, and it now steadies the market when foreign investors sell. How it works, who invests, and where the risks are.

Brief

Monthly SIP money has grown almost four times since 2020. It now acts as a steady buyer when foreign investors sell.

Key points

  • SIPs brought in a record ₹32,297 crore in August 2026.
  • In FY2025-26, domestic institutions bought ₹8.09 lakh crore of shares while foreign investors sold ₹1.81 lakh crore.
  • In one HDFC Nifty 50 index fund, a 10-year SIP returned about 11% a year, but a 3-year SIP earned about 2.7% a year.

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Research

F&O

India's F&O losses: ₹3.85 lakh crore in five yearsHow much individual traders lost in futures and options, who they are, and why they keep losing

Brief

Individual traders lost about ₹3.85 lakh crore in F&O over five years, and roughly 9 in 10 lose money every year.

Key points

  • Losses were highest in FY25, at about ₹1.12 lakh crore.
  • 43% of traders are under 30, and 73% declare an income below ₹5 lakh a year.
  • Trading firms and foreign investors made money on the other side, almost all of it through computer-run (algorithmic) trading.

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Research

Demat

India's demat boom: how much more money went into stocksDemat accounts grew almost six times since 2020, and households put in roughly seven times as much fresh money as in the 2000s. But individuals still directly own less than a tenth of the market.

Brief

Demat accounts grew almost six times since 2020, but most of the new money went through mutual funds, not direct share buying.

Key points

  • Demat accounts rose from 4 crore in 2020 to 23.8 crore in 2026.
  • Households put in about ₹18 lakh crore since 2020, compared with about ₹2.5 lakh crore in the whole 2000s decade.
  • Individuals directly own 9.5% of NSE-listed companies, barely more than the 8.4% they owned in 2020.

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Index

Listed companiesReturnsSMEMarket structureFPIDIIOwnershipNifty

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